Sad to say (well, not really), "I told you so!" Facebook is an unmitigated disaster.
Once again today the share price of Fakebook dropped and hit numbers I predicted on this blog one week before IPO. Please refer to:
One week before IPO date, on May 11, I wrote in: Facebook IPO in BIG Trouble? Could Be!
Could Facebook become the big money loser that some of us think it will? Yep. The tea leaves are lining with the stars... As with Groupon, Facebook's business model is seriously flawed. In Groupon's case, the business model is built around SPAM mail... What business model built around sending people junk mail and SPAM could possibly be good? I wrote about that in Groupon is a Disaster! What Did I Tell You?
In Facebook's case, well, in Facebook's case, I don't really know what the business model is excepting to sell paid advertising and that model doesn't seem to work at all anymore.
Then, on May 19th, the day of the IPO, please refer to: "Houston, we have a problem" Facebook Fizzles! Fails to Liftoff
Some things just make me chuckle... Like I've said a hundred times:
Groupon's business built on SPAM mail is a terrible business model.
Facebook doesn't have a profit model….I called Groupon correctly and let me make a guess on Facebook. Facebook will be in the mid $20 range by December.
Well, I called the numbers right... Facebook price is now in the mid 20s dropping a whopping 42% from its $45 high point on IPO day in just three weeks!
Well, I had the numbers right but the dates off... Unfortunately for Facebook shareholders, Facebook is even worse than I thought. So, let me revisit my prediction of May 31, 2012 whereby I claimed that I had to adjust my thoughts and felt that Facebook would be in the mid 10s by December. I won't revise that prediction, but I also will say that $5 ~ $6 wouldn't surprise me.
And, as I sit here laughing about all this and being proud of my smug little self, the wife sticks her head around the corner and says, "If you're so smart why ain't you rich?"
Well... Can't argue with her on that point! Yikes!
And, as I sit here laughing about all this and being proud of my smug little self, the wife sticks her head around the corner and says, "If you're so smart why ain't you rich?"
Well... Can't argue with her on that point! Yikes!
3 comments:
"If you're so smart why ain't you rich?"
Ha, funny.
Good to see I'm not the only one that gets that line tossed their way.
Also, I saw a headline which said a video"facebook" look-alike was supposed to be the next big thing.
I thought of your blog when I saw that and wondered wHAt will be the next big thing?
- clark
It wasn't a contrarian view.
No large U.S. company is attracting more attention from short sellers than Facebook Inc. (FB)...Short interest on the Menlo Park, California-based company reached 5.9 percent of shares outstanding, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Data Explorers Ltd., a New York-based research firm. None of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies with at least $50 billion in market capitalization has short interest higher than 3 percent...
Hey Mike & friends,
What are your teen or adult children using? You got your own market research team right there. I'm guessing they know what the next big thing is, but not telling you. Selfish, selfish, selfish.
(My guess: The Next Big Thing won't be video. Video does not let you have 10-20 diff. conversations at the same time. Text/photos does. So it will be a remix of BBS/email/IM.)
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